Economic mirror of the day, comments


Oil prices fell slightly on Wednesday morning amid unexpected growth in US stocks of raw materials and doubts about the effectiveness of the global OPEC + pact.
Futures for Brent crude oil fell by 0.21 percent to $ 51.99 per barrel.
Futures for American oil WTI by this time traded at $ 49.46 per barrel, 0.2 percent lower than the previous closing.
US oil reserves increased by 897,000 barrels to 532.5 million in the week ended April 21, while analysts predicted a 1.7 million barrel decline, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday.
Prices for the North Sea mix have decreased by almost 10 percent since the end of 2016 due to the fact that world oil supplies remain at a record high level, despite the reduction in production by members of the OPEC oil cartel and non-member states, including Russia.
More than half of the term of the global oil pact is over, but its effectiveness in combating the glut of the market still raises questions, forcing us to think about the fact that the OPEC + deal helped to raise prices only, but not to reduce world raw materials reserves.
According to the vessel tracking system in the Reuters terminal, in April the world tanker oil deliveries will amount to 50 million barrels per day, which is more than 10 percent higher compared to the level of December last year.
This, in turn, led to an increase in raw materials not only in the US, but also in key Asian markets, including Japan.
Some analysts nevertheless note the beginning of equalization of the balance in the world oil market.
"Oil supplies should decrease over the next three weeks, which will support markets and create conditions for price recovery," said analyst Marex Spectron.

The VIX index fell 19% from 15.30, and the 1-month implied volatility in EUR / USD fell from 13.45 to 8.20. The JP Morgan G7 volatility index fell to 8.03, the lowest level since November 2014. Against the backdrop of a worldwide decline in volatility, investment in the assets of developing countries has reached a satisfactory level.
In the next 2-3 months, it is possible to forecast a steady growth in investment in the assets of developing countries. In developed markets, so far, there has been little growth, their assets remain significantly overvalued (enterprise revenues do not justify price increases (INDU's price / earnings ratio for the past 12 months at 20.81 and dividend income at 2.35 are significantly higher than historical averages). Given the low income of enterprises, we doubt the sharp outflow of capital from the currency assets of developing countries to US / European assets, but the corporate assets of developing countries still represent value.
We recommend to refrain from buying ZAR, TRY and MXN due to idiosyncratic risks, but we believe that fast-profit hunters will switch to high-yielding currencies of developing countries.
The dollar exchange rate paired with the yen rose to a maximum in two weeks on the growth of investors' demand for more risky assets. At the same time, the dollar continues to fall towards the euro
Investors focus on the United States, where supposedly on Wednesday the plan of the tax reform promised by President Donald Trump will be made public.
In particular, many experts expect that the corporate income tax rate may decrease from the current 35% to 15%.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is getting cheaper in almost all major world currencies for news of weaker than expected consumer price growth in the first quarter.
Inflation in Australia in January-March was 0.5% in quarterly and 2.1% in annual terms, while experts on average predicted 0.6% and 2.2% respectively.
The euro rose to $ 1.0937 compared with $ 1.0926 at the close of the previous session.
The dollar's exchange rate against the yen rose to the mentioned time to 111.47 yen compared to 111.09 yen the day before. The euro to the yen went up to 121.92 yen against 121.37 yen on Tuesday.

Gold prices in the future for several years will grow and can reach an average of $ 1500 per ounce by 2020, according to BMI Research, the research arm of the rating agency Fitch.
On Tuesday, the evening benchmark price of gold was $ 1267.8 per ounce.
The price of gold will be affected by two factors, analysts at BMI Research explain: the stagnant real rate in the US amid disappointing economic growth and rising inflation, as well as the growing uncertainty of world politics, especially in the sphere of trade.
In turn, the price increase will spur investment in gold mining, especially Chinese companies will actively operate abroad, BMI Research predicts.
Gold production will continue to grow by 2-3% per year, follows from the forecast of BMI Research, and in 2020 will reach 111.6 million ounces, and in 2021 - 114 million ounces. The average growth rate of production from 2017 to 2021 will be 2.6%, according to analysts