Economic mirror of the day, comments

Economic mirror of the day


- International rating agency S & P confirmed long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings of Azerbaijan in national and foreign currency at the level of "BB + / B".
The agency maintained a "negative" outlook on long-term ratings, pointing to the continuation of the recession in the country's economy. It is expected that this year the country's GDP will decrease by 1%.
"The negative outlook mainly reflects the risks of weakening Azerbaijan's positions in foreign markets in comparison with the agency's baseline scenario," S & P said in a statement.
At the same time, S & P Global Ratings forecasts Azerbaijan's GDP growth in 2019-2020. At the level of 3.5% per year.
S & P recommends that the Azerbaijani government accelerate the implementation of structural reforms to diversify the economy.
"Economic prospects of Azerbaijan depend heavily on oil prices, and economic prospects depend on the plans of the country's authorities to carry out reforms, including improving the business environment." The end goal of these reforms should be diversification of the country's economy, "the agency said.
At the same time, S & P analysts do not currently expect significant progress in implementing structural reforms.
In addition, the agency believes that the institutional mechanisms in Azerbaijan remain weak, characterized by highly centralized decision-making.
The agency can lower the ratings of the country if the pressure on the country's balance of payments does not ease and that, for example, lead to a reduction in the reserves of the Central Bank or the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ).
Also, S & P could worsen the rating if the Azerbaijani government reduces the flexibility of its budget policy and, for example, because limiting budget spending may be difficult for political reasons.
S & P may reconsider the outlook on "stable" if the pressure on the balance of payments decreases on the background of improving prospects for the country's economic growth and the situation in the banking system.
"Our ratings on Azerbaijan are mainly supported by the strong fiscal position of the country, the reserves accumulated in SOFAZ, the ratings are constrained by weak institutional efficiency, narrow and concentrated economic base and limited flexibility of monetary policy," the agency reports.

The euro fell against the dollar to $ 1.1728 compared with $ 1.1751 at the close of trading in New York last Friday.
The dollar's rate against the Japanese national currency fell by this time to 110.60 yen against 110.68 yen at the close. The euro paired with the yen to 129.72 yen, down from 130.03 yen at the close of trading on Friday.
Meanwhile, since the beginning of July, the US dollar has fallen by 2.2% to the basket of major currencies, the decline has continued for five consecutive months, which has not been observed since 2011.

Oil prices continue to grow due to data on the fall in oil and gasoline stocks in the US, as well as statements by OPEC representatives about the commitment to taking measures to restore the balance of supply and demand in the market.
September futures for Brent crude on the ICE Futures exchange in London rose by 30 cents (0.6%) to $ 52.82 per barrel.
Quotes of the September contract for oil WTI on the New York Mercantile Exchange NYMEX rose by 18 cents (0.4%) - to $ 49.89 per barrel.
Following the auction on July 28, the value of the September contract for Brent crude oil increased by $ 1.03 (2%) and amounted to $ 52.52 per barrel.
September futures for WTI went up by $ 0.67 (1.4%) and amounted to $ 49.71 per barrel.